Country-level insights shaping the upcoming evaluation of NICFI

How can Norway’s climate and forest efforts achieve the greatest possible impact? Insights from a delegation visit to Peru and Colombia will inform the upcoming evaluation of Norway’s International Climate and Forest Initiative (NICFI) – focusing on learning, effectiveness, and future strategic direction.

In connection with the signing of new forest agreements between Norway, Peru and Colombia, staff from the Independent Evaluation Department of Norwegian Development Cooperation (Eval) were invited to join the Norwegian delegation on partner meetings, together with colleagues from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Climate and Environment, and Norad. The visits provided important understanding for the upcoming evaluation.

From insight to understanding

Established in 2008, NICFI is one of Norway’s most long-standing contributions to global climate and forest policy.

The initiative operates across key forest countries in Latin America, Africa, and Asia, using a broad set of instruments ranging from land-use policies and Indigenous rights to finance and commodity markets.

The upcoming evaluation will assess results over time, how the portfolio has developed, and how different instruments have contributed to reducing deforestation. The main purpose is to generate insights and learning that can inform the development of a post-2030 strategy for NICFI.

Insights from the field showed that formal reporting alone does not capture the full picture.

“If you only read reports, you may end up with a fairly limited picture of what the programme has achieved. By engaging with actors at regional, national and local levels, you gain a better understanding of the broader role of Norway and NICFI in preservation of global rainforests – where some of that story might not be very well captured in existing reporting,” says Senior Adviser Anne-Thora Vardøy-Mutale.

Forests under growing pressure

Deforestation in the Amazon takes place in a landscape shaped by strong and often competing interests. Natural resources carry significant economic value, while institutions in many areas have limited capacity to enforce regulations.

Across both Peru and Colombia, the delegation encountered a situation that is highly challenging and, in several areas, deteriorating– driven by economic pressures, governance constraints, and increasing levels of illegal activity. Illegal gold mining stood out as a particularly destructive driver.

“What stood out most was the scale of destruction caused by illegal gold mining. It moves from area to area, removes the soil entirely, pollutes waterways with mercury, and leaves behind wastelands that can not be reforested. The presence of criminal actors also has severe consequences for local communities, affecting people, wildlife and ecosystems. In some areas, the scale of activity is so extensive that authorities have lost territorial control,” says Vardøy-Mutale.

The visit highlighted how closely local realities are linked to global dynamics. Demand in international markets contributes to the pressure on forests, while the consequences are experienced locally, often under demanding and risky conditions.

In several areas, progress is fragile and can be reversed quickly if underlying drivers are not addressed. Deforestation and forest crime do not stop at national borders, underlining the need for stronger regional cooperation.

“These are not issues that can be handled domestically by the forest countries. Many of the drivers are cross-border, which means countries need to work more closely together to address them,” says Vardøy-Mutale.

Insights from the stakeholder

Meeting stakeholders directly provided the delegation with concrete insights into how the initiative works in practice. Representatives from national and regional authorities, Indigenous organisations, civil society, implementing partners, and multilateral organisations shared their perspectives on both challenges and opportunities.

“These are things you cannot learn from reading documents in Norway. You need to meet people, hear their experiences, and understand the realities they are working in. You need to understand how things actually work in practice, not only how they are intended to work on paper,” says adviser Muhammad Ali Kaifi.

These discussions highlighted both the breadth of activities and the challenges of implementation. While legal frameworks are often in place, implementation and enforcement remains a key challenge.

“In many cases, the challenge is not a lack of policies or regulations, but the ability to implement them. That is where much of the complexity lies,” says Kaifi.

The purpose of the visit was to strengthen the knowledge basis for the evaluation. As part of what is often referred to as “Team Norway”, the Evaluation Department shares the same overall objective as other actors involved in NICFI: to maximise the impact of Norway’s contributions.

Learning what works

One of the clearest takeaways from the visit is the need to place learning at the centre of the evaluation.

In a context of climate change, increasing pressure on global rainforests, and declining international aid, it is essential to understand where efforts deliver the strongest results, how they should be organised, and what should be prioritised going forward.

“We need to understand how Norway’s efforts are working in practice, where they deliver strong results, where they are less effective, and where the main gaps are. This is not only about documenting what has been done, but about building a stronger basis for deciding what should be done differently and what should be prioritised going forward,” says Vardøy-Mutale.

Looking ahead, a central question is what can be built on and what needs to be adjusted towards 2030 and further towards 2035. At the same time, the evaluation will consider how the programme has evolved and whether it has adapted to changing conditions.

“This is really about understanding what NICFI has achieved, the role the initiative has played for global forests and climate, which areas should be prioritised going forward, and whether we are learning effectively across countries, actors and contexts,” she adds.

A stronger foundation for the future

Preparations for the evaluation are currently underway, with the tender expected to be published before the summer. The evaluation is expected to start later this year.

Given the scale of NICFI, the work will span several years, with part deliveries planned between 2027 and 2029.

As both Vardøy-Mutale and Kaifi emphasise, insights from the field have been important:

“Engaging directly with stakeholders and seeing the context firsthand has been important. It gives us a stronger foundation for shaping an evaluation that can provide relevant and useful knowledge going forward,” says Kaifi.